The International Monetary Fund has raised its economic growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa to 4.5 percent for 2025, citing improving commodity revenues, easing inflation, and a wave of infrastructure investment as the primary drivers.
The projection, published in the Fund's latest Regional Economic Outlook, marks an upgrade from the 3.8 percent growth recorded in 2024 and positions the region as one of the fastest-expanding economic blocs globally.
Countries leading the growth surge include Senegal, which is expected to expand by 8.2 percent following the start of offshore oil and gas production, alongside Ethiopia at 7.1 percent and Rwanda at 6.8 percent. West Africa's collective performance is buoyed by strong cocoa and gold revenues.
However, IMF economists warned that the outlook is uneven. Nations in the Sahel — battered by insecurity, military coups, and suspended foreign aid — face contraction or stagnation. Sudan's economy has shrunk by an estimated 20 percent since the outbreak of civil war in April 2023.
"The divergence between Africa's fastest-growing and most fragile economies is widening," noted IMF African Department Director Abebe Selassie. "Inclusive growth requires stability, governance reform, and deeper regional trade integration."
The African Continental Free Trade Area, which came into force in 2021, is gradually increasing intra-African commerce, though non-tariff barriers and weak customs infrastructure continue to limit its potential. Officials estimate that full implementation could add $450 billion annually to the continent's GDP.
