Nigeria's Cooking Gas Prices Surge 35% — Despite Domestic Output Hitting Record High

Cooking gas prices across Nigeria climbed more than a third over the past six months, leaving millions of households struggling to afford a essential fuel even as domestic production reached its highest level in years. The contradiction has ignited debate about pricing mechanisms, export commitments, and the government's ability to translate production gains into affordable fuel at the pump.

Rising Costs Hit Households Hard

A 12-kilogram cylinder of liquefied petroleum gas now costs an average of ₦8,500 in Lagos markets, up from roughly ₦6,300 in January. The 35 percent jump has forced many families in low-income neighbourhoods to return to wood and kerosene, fuels associated with indoor air pollution that kills an estimated 93,000 Nigerians annually according to World Health Organisation data.

The price surge has been felt most acutely in northern states, where household income levels tend to be lower and access to gas infrastructure remains limited. In Kano, retailers report that customers are buying smaller quantities more frequently rather than paying for full cylinders upfront.

Domestic Supply Increases Significantly

Paradoxically, Nigerian gas production has climbed steadily. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited confirmed output rose to 5.2 million metric tonnes annually, a 12 percent increase compared to the same period last year. New wells in the Niger Delta and improved maintenance at existing facilities have contributed to the uptick.

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which began full operations in Lagos late last year, has also diverted more LPG to the domestic market than initially planned. The facility's management announced in March it would allocate 30 percent of its LPG production to the local market, up from an original target of 20 percent.

Why Production Gains Have Not Eased Prices

Industry analysts point to several factors preventing lower prices despite greater supply. Export contracts signed when the naira was weaker have locked in quantities that might otherwise have remained in Nigeria. When the currency stabilised partially, the cost savings were absorbed by distributors rather than passed to consumers.

Transportation and storage bottlenecks also play a role. Much of Nigeria's gas infrastructure was built to move fuel toward export terminals rather than distribution networks serving inland markets. Rebuilding that network requires investment that smaller distributors cannot afford.

Government Response Under Scrutiny

The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority issued a statement in April acknowledging the price pressure but attributed much of the increase to global market dynamics. Authority spokesperson Kim更难bechi noted that international benchmarks had risen, affecting even producers with strong domestic commitments.

Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, told reporters in Abuja that the government was examining regulatory tools to ensure pricing transparency. He stopped short of announcing specific interventions, citing ongoing consultations with industry stakeholders.

Opposition lawmakers have called for a parliamentary inquiry into the pricing structure. Senator Olubumni Adedeji submitted a formal request for the Senate Committee on Petroleum to examine whether markups between refinery gate prices and retail costs were justified.

Development Implications

The price surge complicates Nigeria's clean energy transition goals. The government had aimed to increase LPG adoption to 40 percent of households by 2030, reducing reliance on solid fuels that contribute to deforestation and respiratory illness. Higher prices risk reversing those gains.

The World Bank has previously noted that energy poverty in Nigeria disproportionately affects women and children, who typically handle cooking duties and suffer most from indoor air pollution. Affordable LPG access has been framed as both a health and gender equity issue in development circles.

For Nigeria's informal economy, cooking gas costs directly affect small businesses. Roadside food vendors in Lagos and Port Harcourt have reported narrowing profit margins as fuel expenses eat into revenue.

What Happens Next

Watch for the regulatory authority's next pricing review, expected before the end of the third quarter. Industry sources suggest distributors will seek another increase in August if international prices remain elevated.

The Senate Petroleum Committee has scheduled public hearings for July, where consumer groups and oil marketers will present evidence on the pricing chain. Any legislative recommendations could shape policy before the year closes.

For ordinary Nigerians, the immediate outlook offers little relief. Unless domestic distribution infrastructure expands meaningfully or the naira strengthens against the dollar, households will continue paying more for the same fuel regardless of how much Nigeria produces.