New Study Exposes 3,139 African Power Plants — Fossil Fuels Still Dominate
A comprehensive study tracking 3,139 power plants across Africa has found that fossil fuels continue to dominate the continent's electricity generation landscape, complicating international climate pledges and development aspirations alike.
What the Study Found
Researchers mapped power infrastructure spanning from North Africa to Southern Africa. The data shows coal, oil, and natural gas plants make up the largest share of the continent's operating generation capacity. Renewable energy facilities exist but remain unevenly distributed across regions.
Why Fossil Fuels Still Lead
Several factors explain the continued reliance on traditional energy sources. Coal and gas plants offer reliable baseload power that solar and wind installations cannot consistently provide without substantial battery storage. Many African governments prioritised energy access and industrial expansion over emissions targets when building their grids.
Natural gas has gained ground in North Africa and parts of West Africa, where reserves are abundant and infrastructure already exists. Oil-fired plants persist in nations with limited alternatives, though fuel import costs strain foreign exchange reserves.
Regional Variations Across the Continent
Power mixes differ sharply by region. East Africa has seen growing geothermal development in the Rift Valley and hydropower expansions, particularly in Ethiopia and Kenya. West Africa's coastline shows increasing interest in gas, while inland nations often rely on older, less efficient thermal units.
Southern Africa's situation stands apart. South Africa generates the majority of its electricity from coal, a pattern that has persisted for decades through the state-owned utility Eskom. Neighbouring nations such as Botswana and Zimbabwe maintain similar coal-heavy profiles, though on smaller scales.
Development Priorities Clash with Climate Goals
African leaders face a difficult balancing act. Roughly 600 million people on the continent still lack access to electricity, according to International Energy Agency data. Expanding fossil fuel capacity can bring power to unserved populations faster than waiting for renewable grids to scale up.
Yet investors and development partners increasingly attach climate conditions to financing. International lenders now scrutinise coal projects more closely, raising borrowing costs for new thermal developments. This creates a gap between what nations need and what external funding will support.
Shifting Investment Patterns
Private capital has begun flowing toward utility-scale solar in countries with strong irradiance, particularly in the Sahel and East African highlands. Off-grid solar companies have gained traction in rural areas where extending transmission lines costs too much.
These advances, while notable, have not yet displaced fossil fuels at the system level. The 3,139 plants tracked represent decades of accumulated infrastructure that will not disappear overnight regardless of policy shifts.
What Comes Next
The research team behind the study plans to update its plant-level database annually, enabling analysts to track whether investment patterns are shifting in practice. Their next report is expected to include capacity additions and retirements from the preceding twelve months.
Observers will be watching whether the surge in global clean energy announcements translates into concrete African projects. Development banks and bilateral partners have pledged billions for the continent's energy transition, yet disbursement lags behind headline commitments. The pace of actual construction on the ground will determine whether the next update shows movement away from fossil dominance or more of the same.
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